intentional bias toward the investor's financial well being.
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An oil and gas field development company created with an intentional bias toward the investor's financial well being. |
| Raymond James Energy "Stat of the Week" - Feb. 6 and 13, 2012 Raymond James' Energy Outlook Condensed Version |
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Conclusion: Natural Gas. Expect the recent surge of activity in oil/liquids plays and the Marcellus to translate to supply growth that should more than offset declines from dry-gas plays. We see significant forced gas production curtailments in 2012. Thus, we are lowering our 2012 forecast from $3.25/Mcf to $2.50/Mcf and lowering our 2013 forecast from $4.00/Mcf to $3.25/Mcf. Long term, we are lowering our forecast from $4.50/Mcf to $4.00/Mcf.
CRUDE OIL: Robust oil production puts a damper on our long term oil price deck. We are projecting that total U.S. oil production will grow about 55% (or 4.3 MMBpd) from 7.9 MMBpd last year to 12.2 MMBpd in 2015. That does not account for potential production from the Utica or growing Canadian oil sands supply, which would only provide upside to the readily available crude supply in the U.S. Coupling all of these factors, U.S. imports will continue to decline and OPEC spare capacity will drift bearishly higher in coming years. Thus we are lowering our 2013 WTI forecast from $105/Bbl to $90/Bbl. For Brent we are lowering next year's forecast from $110/Bbl to $95/Bbl Brent. We are also lowering our long term oil forecast from $125/Bbl to $90Bbl WTI and $95/Bbl Brent. We should note that barring significant supply interuptions in the Middle East, we think there is more downside to our long-term forecast than upside.
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Investors Energy, LLC, nor any of our affiliates, necessarily agree or disagree with anything stated by Raymond James and Associates. Nor is this posting meant to be a recommendation or endorsement of any of their services and/or products. Raymond James and Associates, oil and gas division, is however one of the most consistently accurate industry prognosticators we have witnessed over the past 16 years. As such we are providing their reports purely as a service to our clients and potential clients. We will gladly provide complete contact information on Raymond James and Associates for anyone wishing to receive the complete report.
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