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intentional bias toward the investor?s financial well being. |
| Raymond James Energy "Stat of the Week" - September 9, 2009 Raymond James' Energy Outlook Condensed Version |
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"Conclusion: NATURAL GAS: Recall, we slashed our natural gas estimates in March, cutting our 2009 forecast to $3.75/Mcf and 3Q09 to $2.50/Mcf. Recently, the pace of injections has slowed down compared to last year (slightly bullish), but the domestic natural gas market is still over supplied by nearly 500 Bcf. From here it appears that incremental supply shut-ins will need to total 200+ Bcf and natural gas may need to fall below $2.00/Mcf. In 2010, the outlook is much more uncertain. 1) Will demand recover? 2) How far/long will suply fall? 3) How much will LNG imports increase? All in, we forecast $6.00/Mcf gas prices in 2010. Things should rebound from their current depressed levels, but our confidence in the magnitude of such a recovery is relatively low. CRUDE OIL: On June 22nd, we boosted our 2009 and 2010 oil price forecasts from $48/bbl and $65/bbl to $56/bbl and $80/bbl, respectively. We continue to think that the possibility for a short-term pullback in oil prices remains, possibly driven by a pullback in the broader market. This is why our 4Q09 estimate is only $65/bbl (futures strip is closer to $70/bbl). In the near-term, the global economic crisis continues to obscure oil demand, with virtually no near-term visibility. Longer-term, incremental supply projects contine to get shelved and/or postponed indefinitely. Such moves will result in a supply-constrained market. The only question is when. That answer depends entirely on when global oil demand can stabilize and begin to recover. " |
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